Break It Down!
In the United States, Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. We are about to wrap up the second month. Storms, of course, can occur outside the parameters of these six months. They may also emanate from the Pacific, in which case they are called a typhoon if it hovers over the Northwest Pacific Ocean (Usually East Asia). If it happens elsewhere in the region, it’s called a cyclone.
The United States relies on several federal agencies for weather forecasting, research, emergency and notifications. The two most prominent are the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These agencies are funded by the federal government through annual appropriations approved by Congress.
During President Trump’s first term (2017–2021), there were a variety of budget proposals and discussions about federal agency funding, including NOAA and the NWS. Some administration budget blueprints proposed reductions to NOAA’s budget, which sparked discussions and concern among scientists, meteorologists, and members of the public. However, in Trump’s first term, Congress did not enact the most dramatic of these proposed cuts, and both NOAA and the NWS continued to operate with full federal funding.
Welcome to term number two, and a whole new ballgame, as it relates to the administration defunding federal agencies…including NOAA and the NWS. Earlier this year, DOGE, the so-called Department of Governmental Efficiency, brainchild of Trump and Elon Musk, precipitated early retirements and short staffing at the NWS. Moreover, in addition many of the weather service’s most experienced leaders, people with decades of experience in the particular weather vulnerabilities in local areas, are leaving the organization. These scientists and experts have been critical in devising strategies, means, and methods to protect people and property.
Then, there’s NOAA, which oversees the weather service. There, all probationary employees were dismissed earlier this year. That means, among other things, there is no backfill; no incoming fresh talent to replace the old guard. Even if the weather service were to reinitiate hiring, it may have trouble attracting talented people. What scientist worth his or her salt would want to work at an agency where science is not valued, and where you could suddenly be dismissed without warning, or reason?
Various media outlets have cautioned since the beginning of hurricane season that massive staffing cuts at NOAA from firing probationary employees, DOGE buyouts, and early retirements have left at least eight of the 122 NWS Offices unable to operate around the clock. Due to this loss of staff, regular twice-per-day upper air balloon soundings, which are typically the most important ingredient in making reliable model weather forecasts, have been lost from about 18% of the nation’s upper air stations. Some locations have been reduced to once-per-day launches, and a number are doing no launches at all.
The Washington Post reported that for the month ending May 26, 17% of all U.S. balloon launches that should have occurred have not, most, due to NOAA staffing losses. While preliminary data suggest that lack of balloon data did not have a significant detrimental impact on the Texas flood forecasts, it is a certainty that this level of data loss will cause significant degradation for some forecasts of extreme weather events – potentially including hurricanes making initial landfall along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
In fact, NOAA’s just-released 2026 budget plan would close all NOAA labs, including the National Severe Storms Laboratory (which was founded in 1964), and others with very similar long histories of innovation and accomplishment. This includes the two labs most instrumental in improving hurricane forecasts, the AOML and GFDL.
The justification? Project 2025 (remember that one) described NOAA’s primary research branch, which operates all these labs – the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research – as “the source of much of NOAA’s climate alarmism.” Not big fans of science?
Meteorologist Michael Lowey wrote, “One of the primary tools we use to predict flash floods like the ones in Central Texas comes from the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System, a project of the National Severe Storms Laboratory or NSSL in Norman Oklahoma. I’ve zero doubt weather service forecasters were leveraging that tool that evening to issue flash flood warnings. The NSSL and associated projects like this one are slated for elimination in NOAA’s proposed 2026 budget, which would be detrimental to our ability to forecast these types of deadly floods in the future.”
During the spring, when DOGE was endeavoring to insinuate its way into the innermost inner workings of the federal government, three things were abundantly clear:
- Trump 2.0 was serious about the mission, not only of removing the guardrails that prevented him from dismantling the federal government in his first term, but also about executing the job.
- With Musk and DOGE acting as the metaphorical chainsaw, Team Trump sat to systematically undo most things government was charged to do, from healthcare, to education, to airline safety, to weather.
- After dismantling governmental structures, and firing professional leadership, replace scientists and experts with his preferred oligarchs, and his and their friends.
Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick’s scope of responsibility includes overseeing the mechanisms used to monitor and predict the weather. Before assuming the role, Lutnick ran a financial firm, which he left in the control of his adult sons. The company stands to benefit if Trump follows through on a decade-long Republican effort to privatize government weather forecasting.
But wait. Lutnick is not alone in that regard. Trump’s pick to lead NOAA, Neil Jacobs, was the chief atmospheric scientist for Panasonic Weather Solutions, and has been a proponent of privatization. And…Trump’s nominee for another top NOAA position Taylor Jordan, is a lobbyist with a roster of weather-related clients.
It doesn’t end there. Mr. DOGE himself, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man spent more than $270 million to help get Trump elected. He owns controlling interests in SpaceX and its satellite subsidiary Starlink. Both are regulated by NOAA’s Office of Space Commerce, which lost about one-third of its staff in February layoffs executed by DOGE, which Musk helped create. That turned down the heat in what had been a contentious relationship between Musk and NOAA leadership.
In most other times and spaces in the last hundred years, there would be at least some palpable concern being expressed about conflict of interest, as well as ensuring that some measure of governmental levers remained in the hands of serious professionals. However, with every aspect of the federal government in the hands of one party; Trump’s Party, to be clear, those aren’t even fleeting notions. And if they were, Trump would have the violator fired, or at the very least, subjected to a primary. And, if I must say so, it looks like it’s destined to get worse, before it gets better.
As for the season, with only a third of the six months elapsed, we have plenty of time to find out what follows. “It’s Hurricane Season: What Now!”
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BREAK IT DOWN! 